Afghan Civil War and its Probable after effects on Pakistan

3rd August 2021.

Apprehensions are rising with the increasing probability of an outbreak of civil war in Afghanistan and this war will have devastating consequences not only for Afghanistan but for Pakistan as a neighboring country as well. PM Khan deems it to be the worst-case scenario for Pakistan. Pakistan has once, already faced the aftereffects of such war in the past in the form of social and economic instability, increased theft and crime rate, and mismanagement in the settlement of a huge number of refugees. Pakistan would also have to face security threats due to being connected to the security of the neighboring country.

Pakistan has sought to mitigate this danger by fencing much of the border, ensuring measures such as illegal crossing points, cumulative border posts, solidification of the dimensions of the Frontier Corps, upgrading the training of law-enforcement personnel, enhancing technical surveillance, and stationing regular troops there but these measures are still not adequate to ensure complete safety provided the borders terrain and high apexes of cliffs.


The threat from the Pakistani Taliban and a reunified TTP is reinforced. TTP leader Noor Wali Mehsud recently emerged to publicize that his militant group will continue its war against Pakistan’s security forces and the ambition is to take control of the border regions and make them independent.

A surge of violence in North and South Waziristan has led to escalating fatalities among Pakistani security individuals in the past months. Armed groups residing in Afghanistan would exhibit a great threat to Pakistan as Pakistani military officials have already warned of terrorist sleeper cells being stimulated for any kind of dispute in the neighboring region. In Balochistan, there could be a further rise in violent activity groups coordinated by intimidating external intelligence agencies; as a result, Pakistan’s efforts in anti-terrorism campaigns would prove futile.

Civil war could also lead to a renewed refugee inflow into Pakistan which has already been burdened by hosting three million Afghan refugees for a decade. The government is also working on a plan to institute camps near the border to foil refugees from entering the mainland and planning on reinforcing the Iranian ‘model’.

This will further depreciate Pakistan’s economy and can risk the meeting of export targets. Pakistan has already faced the aftermath of 9/11. A civil war can clue to a regional proxy war, a proxy war could prompt regional geopolitical predicaments of undefined proportions. These all are predictions of a worst-case scenario of Afghanistan plunging into chaos and civil war.

Please contact the Legal Research Institute of Pakistan for further assistance

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