LRIP

Same US Failure but Different Scenario, Assessment between Baghdad and Kabul

September 1, 2021

According to Saad Salloum, journalist and associate professor at the Chair of Political Science at Baghdad’s distinguished al-Mustaniriyya University, “the United States has failed to create a state in Afghanistan, despite 20 years of warfare” during which substantial “political and social changes” have occurred.

According to the regional specialists in an interview with Asia News “It is comparable to how the US continued to fail in Iraq after 18 years of operation following the 2003 invasion” to depose Saddam Hussein, who was then in power. As a result of a comparison between Afghanistan and Iraq”, “the same scenario could occur “in Baghdad.

The Baghdad government has made no official reports or efforts in response to the increase of Koranic students in Kabul, which is reminiscent of what actually occurred in Mosul in the summer of 2014. The radical Islamic movements themselves are keeping a low profile, and some observers even speak of the IS’s “contempt” for the Taliban, who were handed over the country following the American pullout. Instead, the general public and social media users have reinvented images and videos of the great escape, as well as the resulting chaos at the capital’s airport, starting to wonder if something similar could happen in Iraq.

Analysts and international experts highlight the comparison between the two countries’ military forces in terms of corruption and weakness, which could lead to fears of the Iraqi state collapsing, as occurred in Afghanistan. “At the same time,” Saad Salloum warns, “the Iraqi front is different from the Afghan front: separate perceptions, but also successful, as happened in Iraqi Kurdistan, in the north, where there are no major threats and where US policy has been able to maneuver good relations.”

Furthermore, from a strategic standpoint, there is a positive bond between Baghdad and Washington. The situation is very different, just as the case is different in Kabul,” where there are far more pronounced factors from China, Russia, and Iran to consider.

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